Myopia Progression
Axial Elongation
Risk of Myopia
Expected Refractive Error
If myopia is not managed, this child’s myopia at 17 years is expected to be:
If myopia is managed using , this child’s myopia at 17 years is expected to be:
Expected Myopia Progression
If myopia is not managed, this child’s myopia is expected to progress from the current age to 17 years by:
If myopia is managed using , this child’s myopia is expected to progress by:
With , myopia progression from current age to 17 years is expected to be slower than single vision by:
Percentage reduction with compared to single vision:
Expected Refractive Error
If myopia is not managed, this child’s myopia at 17 years is expected to be:
If myopia is managed using , this child’s myopia at 17 years is expected to be:
There is insufficient data to compute the efficacy of using refractive error. Please use the Axial Elongation calculator to assess its efficacy.
Expected Axial Length
If myopia is not managed, this child’s axial length at 17 years is expected to be:
If myopia is managed using , this child’s axial length at 17 years is expected to be:
Expected Axial Elongation
If myopia is not managed, this child’s axial length is expected to elongate from the current age to 17 years by:
If myopia is managed using , this child's axial length is expected to elongate by:
With , axial elongation from current age to 17 years is expected to be slower than single vision by:
Percentage reduction with compared to single vision:
Expected Axial Length
If myopia is not managed, this child’s axial length at 17 years is expected to be:
If myopia is managed using , this child’s axial length at 17 years is expected to be:
There is insufficient data to compute the efficacy of using axial length. Please use the Myopia Progression calculator to assess its efficacy.
Risk of becoming myopic
The child's risk of becoming myopic within 2 years is .
Probability of becoming myopic within 1 and 2 years
1 year probability
Probability of becoming myopic within the next 1 year
2 year probability
Probability of becoming myopic within the next 2 years
References
Naduvilath T, He X, Saunders K, Demir P, Leighton R, McCullough S, Tran H, Ha T, Macedo AF, Xun X, Sankaridurg P, Tahhan P. Regional/ethnic differences in ocular axial elongation and refractive error progression in myopic and non-myopic children. Ophthalmic Physiol Opt. 2025; 45: 135–151. https://doi.org/10.1111/opo.13401
Tahhan P, He X, Saunders K, Demir P, Leighton R, McCullough S, Baskaran K, Macedo AF, Xun X, Sankaridurg P, Naduvilath T. Factors predicting myopia incidence in China and Europe. Ophthalmic Physiol Opt. 2025; 00: 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1111/opo.13563
Disclaimer
Progression curve with standard correction (mean refractive error and mean axial length with its 95% confidence interval) was generated based on annual refractive error progression and axial elongation data of 6208 children aged 6 to 16 years from the following data sources:
(1) children from urban Asia (Brien Holden Vision Institute and Shanghai Eye Disease Prevention and Treatment Center), (2) children in United Kingdom (Ulster University), (3) Sweden (Linnaeus University) and (4) Australia (Brien Holden Vision Institute).
Prediction of myopia onset is based on formulae derived using data of 4405 children aged 6 to 16 years from the following data sources:
(1) children in China (Shanghai Eye Disease Prevention and Treatment Center, Shanghai, China), (2) children in United Kingdom (Ulster University) and (3) Sweden (Linnaeus University).
Myopia treatment efficacy is based on meta-analysis of published data. Research on the management of myopia is continuously evolving. We cannot guarantee that the information on the site (or the underlying data) is accurate or that it will be regarded as accurate in the future.
The calculator provides indicative guidance based on data-driven modelling. For management of myopia you should always consult an expert eye care practitioner who can carry out necessary tests and provide appropriate guidance. This application should be regarded as an informational tool, not as personalised clinical advice. The colour-coded risk levels are designed to support clinical decision-making, but do not replace professional judgment. The myopia management website application should be treated as useful information derived from quality data sources, but it does not represent advice. You should always consult an eye-care practitioner if you have any concerns about your eye health (or health generally) as a result of reading content on or use of this website.
Brien Holden Vision Institute makes no warranties or express or implied representations whatsoever regarding the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or usefulness of the information contained or referenced in this application. Brien Holden Vision Institute does not assume any risk whatsoever for the individual user and/or the healthcare professional’s use of the information contained herein.
We gratefully acknowledge the following individuals for their contributions to the calculator (Prof. Xu Xun, Prof. Xiangui He from Shanghai Eye Disease Prevention and Treatment Centre, China, Prof. Kathryn Saunders, Dr. Sara McCullough from Ulster University, UK and Dr. Pelsin Demir, Dr. Karthikeyan Baskaran, Prof. Antonio Macedo from Linnaeus University, Sweden).
